37K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 47.7%), based on 37K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 41% → 37%
Similar across time controls (~45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 37K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (5.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (39.7%) by 10.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 259 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 715 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 11.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.9%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.8%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.8%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.6%.
In Classical games, the English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense has a 39.7% (90% CI: 33.5%-46.1%) win rate for white (161 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.7%.
The English Opening: Symmetrical Variation, Hedgehog Defense is statistically favors white with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.