16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.8% and 46.1%), based on 16K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 46% → 44%
Best in Classical (44%), worst in UltraBullet (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 57.1% win rate for white (437 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.1%) outperforms Classical (50.8%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 554 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 54.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 53.2%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 437 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.2%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.0%) win rate for white (8.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.4%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Smyslov Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.