110K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.0%), based on 110K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 38%
Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Blitz (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 110K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (3.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.1%) by 10.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.3%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.4%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Classical games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (908 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Four Knights Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.