2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 44.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.4% and 45.8%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 46% → 42%
Best in Blitz (42%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.4% win rate for white (675 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (54.4%) outperforms Rapid (52.5%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 45.2% (90% CI: 37.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 55.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 242 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 55.2% (90% CI: 51.3%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 447 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 50.6% (90% CI: 47.1%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 541 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 55.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 675 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 52.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 54.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-57.8%) win rate for white (584 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-55.1%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System has a 52.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-57.9%) win rate for white (230 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.
The English Opening: King's English Variation, Botvinnik System, Prickly Pawn Pass System is statistically favors white with a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.