English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System
3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.2M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.2M
- Best context
- 53.4% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 42.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.4% at 0-999, 40.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (122 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (13,920 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (19,453 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (7,322 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (74 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (804 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (35,930 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (41,584 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (13,956 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (316 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (1,139 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (79,166 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (91,276 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (25,883 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (881 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (2,848 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (150,402 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (174,524 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (42,969 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (2,243 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (4,325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (250,068 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (275,105 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (62,966 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (3,405 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (2,590 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (324,502 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (351,014 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (59,650 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (2,895 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (2,223 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (338,646 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (258,499 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (32,475 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (1,082 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (442 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (304,444 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (123,821 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (9,931 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (192 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (72,909 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (12,724 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (312 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 49.3% — from 3.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate?
Playing the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System perform best?
The English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (41K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (1.3M games) against 48.7% in Rapid (255K games).
How sharp is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System?
The English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 198K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 373K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 596K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 741K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 633K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 439K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 86K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 255K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.6%, draws 7.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
Is the English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System a good opening?
The English Opening: Caro-Kann Defensive System is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.