39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.9%), based on 39K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 43% → 39%
Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.4%) outperforms Classical (51.2%) by -0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.1%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 133 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 359 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 712 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.1%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.7%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.9%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Classical games, the English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 44.5%-57.9%) win rate for white (148 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.0%.
The English Opening: Anglo-Indian Defense, Flohr-Mikenas-Carls Variation, Nei Gambit is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.