English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense
11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.
Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 11K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.2%
- Draws
- 7.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.0% at 0-999, 44.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (94 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (130 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (197 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (422 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (84 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (370 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (898 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (190 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (543 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,352 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (383 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (27 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (787 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,695 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (345 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,129 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (1,705 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (171 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (408 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (195 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 47.7% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate?
Playing the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense, Black wins 43.0%, draws 7.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense perform best?
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 58.6% (74 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.2% in Blitz (6.4K games) against 43.9% in Rapid (1.2K games).
How sharp is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense?
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a sharpness score of 92.2 (decisive), meaning 92.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 240 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 712 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.2%, draws 7.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 8.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.5%, draws 9.2% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.0%, draws 9.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 613 Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.7%, draws 8.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 39.5%, draws 8.7% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense a good opening?
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.0% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.