11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 46.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 47.7%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 61% → 37%
Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (34%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (613 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (51.8%) outperforms Classical (52.7%) by -0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a sharpness score of 92.2 (decisive), meaning 92.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 240 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 712 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 613 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.1%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.4%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-54.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.7%.
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Keres Defense is statistically favors white with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.