244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 44.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.0% and 44.3%), based on 244K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 42% → 36%
Similar across time controls (~42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 244K rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.1% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (54.3%) outperforms Classical (50.9%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 800 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 57.4% (90% CI: 53.7%-61.1%) win rate for white (475 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Bullet games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.6%) win rate for white (111K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.5%) win rate for white (117K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
In Rapid games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.
In Classical games, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.1%-53.7%) win rate for white (850 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Catalan Defense, Semi-Slav Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.