What is the Elephant Gambit expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Elephant Gambit family has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 49.5%), aggregated from 4 variations and 6.8M Lichess games.
Elephant Gambit
4 variations · 6.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Elephant Gambit is balanced for White at 49.5% expected score.
This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.
You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.5%Aggregated from 4 variations
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.5%
ContextOverall · n=6.8M
Outcome Distribution
47.7%3.5%48.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...d5
Elephant Gambit
Variations4
Games (Context)6.8M
Avg Length31 moves
Draw Rate3.5%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 51% → 48%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 51.3% win rate (534,804 games)
- 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (705,160 games)
- 1200-1399: 49.4% win rate (922,281 games)
- 1400-1599: 47.6% win rate (1,144,067 games)
- 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (1,308,203 games)
- 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (1,209,375 games)
- 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (660,483 games)
- 2200-2499: 46.0% win rate (266,958 games)
- 2500+: 47.6% win rate (37,482 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Classical (54%), worst in Bullet (47%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 49.9% win rate (32,036 games)
- Bullet: 46.5% win rate (2,140,201 games)
- Blitz: 47.6% win rate (3,365,744 games)
- Rapid: 50.1% win rate (1,208,971 games)
- Classical: 54.0% win rate (41,861 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (1,525 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (128,652 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (261,085 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (142,285 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (1,257 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (3,191 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (173,239 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (343,860 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (180,827 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (4,043 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (5,103 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (251,824 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (445,395 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (212,108 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (7,851 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (8,384 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (329,011 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (571,989 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (222,777 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (11,906 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (6,445 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (390,117 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (692,275 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (210,503 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (8,863 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (4,052 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (376,070 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (653,273 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (169,910 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (6,070 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (2,149 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (283,935 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (310,106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (62,533 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (1,760 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (1,116 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (175,869 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (81,992 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (7,871 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (110 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.4% expected score (71 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (31,484 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (5,769 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (157 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (4)
Analyze Elephant Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Elephant Gambit win rate?
The Elephant Gambit family has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 4 variations and 6.8M rated games from Lichess.
How many Elephant Gambit variations are there?
This analysis covers 4 Elephant Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Elephant Gambit perform best?
The Elephant Gambit family performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (535K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Elephant Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Classical (54.0%) outperforms Bullet (46.5%) by 7.5% across all Elephant Gambit variations.
How sharp is the Elephant Gambit?
Elephant Gambit games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Elephant Gambit a good opening family?
The Elephant Gambit family is statistically balanced overall with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 4 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.