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Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit

652K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 52.9%Based on 652K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 52.9%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%3.5%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bg5
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit
Analyzen=652K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 52.9%), based on 652K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.8% win rate (21,275 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (42,373 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.3% win rate (68,132 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (97,527 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (121,320 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (130,827 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.9% win rate (107,148 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.8% win rate (54,451 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (9,345 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.6% win rate (935 games)
  • Bullet: 51.5% win rate (295,413 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (279,984 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (73,955 games)
  • Classical: 47.0% win rate (2,111 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (6,093 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (11,434 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (3,721 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (13,772 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (20,825 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (7,662 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (25,492 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (31,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (11,139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (237 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (37,696 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (45,153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (13,910 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (53,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (51,656 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (14,775 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (530 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (61,807 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (54,743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (13,650 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (519 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (49,623 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (50,028 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (7,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (39,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (13,582 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,812 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7,989 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,350 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit
48.0%
Variations (5)
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Blackmar Gambit
50.9%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Diemer-Rosenberg Attack
47.8%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Fritz Attack
46.2%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit
44.4%
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: Lemberger Countergambit, Endgame Variation
45.9%
Analyze Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 652K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit perform best?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (107K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.6%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 131K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-50.3%) win rate for white (935 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (295K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white (280K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (74K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.8%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit a good opening?

The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit: von Popiel Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.