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Analyzer

Russian Game: Italian Variation

2.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.5%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.6%Based on 2.8M games
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%3.2%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Russian Game: Italian Variation
n=2.8M
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.6%), based on 2.8M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.0% win rate (337,735 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (435,737 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.1% win rate (550,917 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.2% win rate (568,049 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (478,556 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (278,385 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (90,054 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (21,017 games)
  • 2500+: 47.1% win rate (2,065 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.9% win rate (5,707 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (686,892 games)
  • Blitz: 51.1% win rate (1,403,434 games)
  • Rapid: 51.4% win rate (641,963 games)
  • Classical: 51.6% win rate (24,519 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (474 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (65,897 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (161,198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (109,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,047 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (1,146 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (106,337 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (220,228 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (104,843 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (3,183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (1,681 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (132,881 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (289,916 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (121,272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (5,167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (135,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (294,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (129,101 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (7,469 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (614 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (117,747 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (250,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (104,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (5,501 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (185 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (74,956 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (142,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (58,955 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (1,995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (36,677 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (39,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (13,600 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,673 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (5,312 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Russian Game
48.9%
Variations (5)
Russian Game: Classical Attack
50.6%
Russian Game: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
45.9%
Russian Game: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
44.5%
Russian Game: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
47.4%
Russian Game: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
44.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Russian Game: Italian Variation perform best?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (436K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Russian Game: Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.4%) outperforms Bullet (50.0%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Russian Game: Italian Variation?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 338K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 436K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 551K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 568K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 479K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 278K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 90K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.3%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.0%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white (687K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.5%) win rate for white (642K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Russian Game: Italian Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.1%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Russian Game: Italian Variation a good opening?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.