Montevideo Defense

1 variations · 80K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Montevideo Defense leaves Black at 46.8% — consider alternatives.

The minimum advantage of -7.1% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.

You play

Tough Sell

Rating

Time

Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 47.1%Aggregated from 1 variations

0%46.8%100%

Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 47.1%

ContextOverall · n=80K

Outcome Distribution

45.0%3.5%51.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

2...Nb8

Montevideo Defense

Variations1

Games (Context)80K

Avg Length35 moves

Draw Rate3.5%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Montevideo DefenseTop Pick

1.d4 Nc6 2.d5 Nb8

Min adv -7.1% · n=80K

46.8%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Montevideo Defense family has a 46.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 47.1%), aggregated from 1 variations and 80K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 41%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (34%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499					—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,273 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,490 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,141 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,448 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (3,857 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (1,318 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (40 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,074 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (5,846 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (1,645 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (119 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (94 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,324 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (7,158 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,988 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (93 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (84 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (5,676 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (6,964 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,386 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.7% expected score (68 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (67 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,114 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (5,022 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (885 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (4,082 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (3,587 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (473 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.9% expected score (44 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,980 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,246 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (110 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,013 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (360 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (1)

Montevideo Defense80K games

Losing46.8%

Analyze Montevideo Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Montevideo Defense win rate?

The Montevideo Defense family has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 80K rated games from Lichess.

How many Montevideo Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 1 Montevideo Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Montevideo Defense perform best?

The Montevideo Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (7.7K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Montevideo Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.9%) outperforms Bullet (49.6%) by 10.3% across all Montevideo Defense variations.

How sharp is the Montevideo Defense?

Montevideo Defense games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Montevideo Defense a good opening family?

The Montevideo Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.