London System

2 variations · 2.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

London System is balanced for White at 50.7% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play

Playable

Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.8%Aggregated from 2 variations

0%50.7%100%

Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.8%

ContextOverall · n=2.1M

Outcome Distribution

48.4%4.6%47.0%

Win

Draw

Loss

4...d6

London System

Variations2

Games (Context)2.1M

Avg Length36 moves

Draw Rate4.6%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1London System: Poisoned Pawn VariationTop Pick

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 d5 3.Bf4 c5 4.e3 Qb6 5.Nc3

Min adv +9.0% · n=22K

55.1%

#2London System

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.Bf4

Min adv +1.2% · n=2.0M

50.7%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the London System family has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.8%), aggregated from 2 variations and 2.1M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 51%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (49%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (40 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (13,150 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (17,454 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,202 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (141 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (35,429 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (46,133 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (16,917 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (181 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (310 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (65,160 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (89,328 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (31,784 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (736 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (695 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (97,481 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (143,364 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (48,606 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (2,077 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (506 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (120,630 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (188,562 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (52,707 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (2,781 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (649 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (128,418 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (237,627 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (53,093 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (2,389 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (163 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (134,799 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (210,559 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (31,434 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (874 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (34 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (120,554 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (104,871 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (11,104 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (173 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (38,321 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (11,802 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (249 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (2)

London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation22K games

Winning55.1%

London System2.0M games

Balanced50.7%

Analyze London System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the London System win rate?

The London System family has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, aggregated from 2 variations and 2.1M rated games from Lichess.

How many London System variations are there?

This analysis covers 2 London System variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the London System perform best?

The London System family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (50K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the London System better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.7%) outperforms Classical (44.7%) by 4.0% across all London System variations.

How sharp is the London System?

London System games are 95.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the London System a good opening family?

The London System family is statistically balanced overall with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 2 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.