Lemming Defense

1 variations · 116K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Lemming Defense gives White a 59.4% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 18.1%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 59.1% – 59.6%Aggregated from 1 variations

0%59.4%100%

Range (90% confident): 59.1% – 59.6%

ContextOverall · n=116K

Outcome Distribution

57.2%4.3%38.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

1...Na6

Lemming Defense

Variations1

Games (Context)116K

Avg Length31 moves

Draw Rate4.3%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data

No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Lemming Defense family has a 59.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 59.1% and 59.6%), aggregated from 1 variations and 116K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 61% → 57%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (69%), worst in Bullet (55%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (153 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (7,164 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (12,233 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (8,162 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 69.3% expected score (196 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (239 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5,078 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (7,474 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.0% expected score (3,522 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.3% expected score (333 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (336 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (4,276 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (6,749 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.7% expected score (2,561 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 80.2% expected score (341 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (585 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (3,985 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (6,743 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (2,788 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (429 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (265 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,055 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (4,859 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (1,492 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (281 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (3,607 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (6,071 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,052 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (52 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 74.6% expected score (29 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (4,492 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (6,153 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (696 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (4,723 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (2,200 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 71.0% expected score (220 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (1,890 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.5% expected score (462 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 95.3% expected score (67 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 94.5% expected score (12 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (1)

Lemming Defense116K games

Winning59.4%

Analyze Lemming Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Lemming Defense win rate?

The Lemming Defense family has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.4%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 116K rated games from Lichess.

How many Lemming Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 1 Lemming Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Lemming Defense perform best?

The Lemming Defense family performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 60.7% win rate for white (28K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Lemming Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (68.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (55.7%) by 13.2% across all Lemming Defense variations.

How sharp is the Lemming Defense?

Lemming Defense games are 95.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Lemming Defense a good opening family?

The Lemming Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.4%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.