Goldsmith Defense

2 variations · 1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Goldsmith Defense gives White a 53.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 7.8%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 53.9% – 54.0%Aggregated from 2 variations

0%53.9%100%

Range (90% confident): 53.9% – 54.0%

ContextOverall · n=1.2M

Outcome Distribution

52.2%3.4%44.4%

Win

Draw

Loss

1...h5

Goldsmith Defense

Variations2

Games (Context)1.2M

Avg Length32 moves

Draw Rate3.4%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data

No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Goldsmith Defense family has a 53.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.9% and 54.0%), aggregated from 2 variations and 1.2M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 50%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (61%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+					—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (566 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (39,036 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (78,691 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (44,068 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (550 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (1,474 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (42,206 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (80,736 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (37,673 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (1,288 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (4,427 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (47,165 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (93,760 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (40,318 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (2,470 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (4,017 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (62,071 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (86,422 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (33,301 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (2,827 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (2,743 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (71,809 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (84,071 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (21,544 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.4% expected score (1,085 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (3,066 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (65,457 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (59,939 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (10,702 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (336 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (2,364 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (52,639 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (19,191 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (3,183 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (36 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (1,494 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (52,258 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (8,036 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (536 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (140 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (10,123 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (876 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (2)

Goldsmith Defense: Picklepuss Defense13K games

Winning58.2%

Goldsmith Defense1.2M games

Winning53.9%

Analyze Goldsmith Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Goldsmith Defense win rate?

The Goldsmith Defense family has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 2 variations and 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

How many Goldsmith Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 2 Goldsmith Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Goldsmith Defense perform best?

The Goldsmith Defense family performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (163K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Goldsmith Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (60.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.5%) by 12.0% across all Goldsmith Defense variations.

How sharp is the Goldsmith Defense?

Goldsmith Defense games are 96.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Goldsmith Defense a good opening family?

The Goldsmith Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 2 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.