Goldsmith Defense
2 variations · 1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
46.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 1.2M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #55 of 62
- Games in this context
- 1.2M
- Best context
- 54.9% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 34.8% at 1400-1599 Classical
- Variations measured
- 2
- Average game length
- 32 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 47.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (566 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (39,036 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (78,691 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (44,068 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (550 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (1,474 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (42,206 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (80,736 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (37,673 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (1,288 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (4,427 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (47,165 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (93,760 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (40,318 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (2,470 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (4,017 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (62,071 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (86,422 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (33,301 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.8% expected score (2,827 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (2,743 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (71,809 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (84,071 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (21,544 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (1,085 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (3,066 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (65,457 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (59,939 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (10,702 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (336 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (2,364 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (52,639 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (19,191 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (3,183 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (36 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (1,494 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (52,258 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (8,036 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (536 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (140 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (10,123 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (876 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
2 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Goldsmith Defense family scores 46.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.1% — from 1.2M Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Goldsmith Defense win rate?
Across the Goldsmith Defense's 2 variations, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.
How many Goldsmith Defense variations are there?
2 Goldsmith Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Goldsmith Defense perform best?
The Goldsmith Defense family performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.5% (62K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Goldsmith Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Goldsmith Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.8% in Blitz (512K games) against 43.9% in Rapid (191K games).
How sharp is the Goldsmith Defense?
Goldsmith Defense games are 96.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Goldsmith Defense a good opening family?
The Goldsmith Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 44.4% and loses 52.2%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.