Carr Defense

2 variations · 986K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Carr Defense gives White a 52.6% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 5.0%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.7%Aggregated from 2 variations

0%52.6%100%

Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.7%

ContextOverall · n=986K

Outcome Distribution

50.8%3.6%45.6%

Win

Draw

Loss

1...h6

Carr Defense

Variations2

Games (Context)986K

Avg Length34 moves

Draw Rate3.6%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data

No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Carr Defense family has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.7%), aggregated from 2 variations and 986K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 43%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~53%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (758 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (25,118 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (30,080 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (10,130 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (136 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (1,695 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (40,503 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (48,054 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (14,508 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (461 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (3,363 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (57,693 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (80,416 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (23,581 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (1,118 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (3,530 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (76,492 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (95,224 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (30,834 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (1,916 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (1,216 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (72,467 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (87,314 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (27,044 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (1,341 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (395 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (77,257 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (46,785 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (21,294 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (415 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (245 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (44,635 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (16,193 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (2,679 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (44 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (124 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (26,054 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (4,657 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (319 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (8,354 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (1,257 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (2)

Carr Defense: Zilbermints Gambit13K games

Winning55.5%

Carr Defense973K games

Winning52.6%

Analyze Carr Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Carr Defense win rate?

The Carr Defense family has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 2 variations and 986K rated games from Lichess.

How many Carr Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 2 Carr Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Carr Defense perform best?

The Carr Defense family performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (64K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Carr Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.0%) outperforms Bullet (50.0%) by 2.0% across all Carr Defense variations.

How sharp is the Carr Defense?

Carr Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Carr Defense a good opening family?

The Carr Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 2 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.