What is the Bogo-Indian Defense expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Bogo-Indian Defense family has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.6%), aggregated from 10 variations and 629K Lichess games.
Bogo-Indian Defense
10 variations · 629K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Bogo-Indian Defense gives White a 52.5% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 4.8%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.6%Aggregated from 10 variations
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.6%
ContextOverall · n=629K
Outcome Distribution
48.9%7.2%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bb4+
Bogo-Indian Defense
Variations10
Games (Context)629K
Avg Length38 moves
Draw Rate7.2%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall
#1Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli TrapTop Pick
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 b6 4.g3 Bb7 5.Bg2 Bb4+ 6.Bd2 Bxd2+ 7.Qxd2 O-O 8.Nc3 Ne4 9.Qc2 Nxc3 10.Ng5
Min adv +12.7% · n=110
#2Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Nbd2
Min adv +7.4% · n=144K
#3Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Bb4+ 4.Nfd2
Min adv -8.5% · n=561
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 50% → 47%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 50.0% win rate (2,358 games)
- 1000-1199: 50.9% win rate (6,660 games)
- 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (15,607 games)
- 1400-1599: 51.1% win rate (32,556 games)
- 1600-1799: 50.4% win rate (59,335 games)
- 1800-1999: 49.5% win rate (105,892 games)
- 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (161,957 games)
- 2200-2499: 48.6% win rate (188,172 games)
- 2500+: 46.7% win rate (56,494 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Similar across time controls (~49%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 48.4% win rate (721 games)
- Bullet: 49.2% win rate (170,695 games)
- Blitz: 48.7% win rate (388,809 games)
- Rapid: 49.0% win rate (64,956 games)
- Classical: 47.3% win rate (3,850 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (691 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,165 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (500 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,201 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,382 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,035 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (4,839 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (8,248 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (2,366 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (120 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (112 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (9,488 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (17,384 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (5,197 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (375 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (290 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (17,674 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (32,158 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (8,504 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (709 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (198 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (24,637 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (65,237 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (14,636 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (1,184 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (69 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (31,904 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (110,958 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (18,079 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (947 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (50,932 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (123,819 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (13,064 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (345 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (28,329 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (26,458 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (1,575 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (132 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (10)
1
Bogo-Indian Defense5.6K games
2
Bogo-Indian Defense: Monticelli Trap110 games
3
Bogo-Indian Defense: Haiti Variation9.8K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: Grünfeld Variation144K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: Exchange Variation158K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: Retreat Variation95K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: Wade-Smyslov Variation61K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation122K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: Vitolins Variation33K games
Bogo-Indian Defense: New England Variation561 games
Analyze Bogo-Indian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bogo-Indian Defense win rate?
The Bogo-Indian Defense family has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, aggregated from 10 variations and 629K rated games from Lichess.
How many Bogo-Indian Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 10 Bogo-Indian Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Bogo-Indian Defense perform best?
The Bogo-Indian Defense family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (16K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Bogo-Indian Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (49.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.4%) by 0.8% across all Bogo-Indian Defense variations.
How sharp is the Bogo-Indian Defense?
Bogo-Indian Defense games are 92.8% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 38 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Bogo-Indian Defense a good opening family?
The Bogo-Indian Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 10 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.