Australian Defense

1 variations · 64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Australian Defense leaves Black at 43.4% — consider alternatives.

The minimum advantage of -13.8% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.

You play

Tough Sell

Rating

Time

Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 43.8%Aggregated from 1 variations

0%43.4%100%

Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 43.8%

ContextOverall · n=64K

Outcome Distribution

41.1%4.6%54.3%

Win

Draw

Loss

1...Na6

Australian Defense

Variations1

Games (Context)64K

Avg Length33 moves

Draw Rate4.6%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Australian DefenseTop Pick

1.d4 Na6

Min adv -13.8% · n=64K

43.4%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Australian Defense family has a 43.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.1% and 43.8%), aggregated from 1 variations and 64K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 43%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (46%), worst in Classical (31%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (41 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (3,401 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (6,365 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (3,585 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (100 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.5% expected score (64 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (2,349 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (3,850 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (2,080 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.1% expected score (149 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (124 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (1,969 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (3,403 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.4% expected score (1,483 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (169 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (424 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (2,304 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (3,288 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.6% expected score (1,335 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.4% expected score (209 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (253 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (2,572 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (2,610 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (751 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (101 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (75 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,603 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,341 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (495 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (27 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (3,121 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (4,148 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (335 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (3,381 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,873 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (77 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,221 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (273 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 4.3% expected score (16 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (1)

Australian Defense64K games

Losing43.4%

Analyze Australian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Australian Defense win rate?

The Australian Defense family has a 54.3% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.6%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 64K rated games from Lichess.

How many Australian Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 1 Australian Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Australian Defense perform best?

The Australian Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 57.4% win rate for white (8.5K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Australian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (61.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.0%) by 8.9% across all Australian Defense variations.

How sharp is the Australian Defense?

Australian Defense games are 95.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Australian Defense a good opening family?

The Australian Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 54.3% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.6%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.