Polish Defense

2 variations · 817K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1...b5

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

47.7%

40%55%

Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.8%.

Measured over 817K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

45.8%3.7%50.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 817K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #38 of 62
Games in this context: 817K
Best context: 50.2% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context: 36.7% at 1000-1199 Classical
Variations measured: 2
Average game length: 33 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Polish DefenseBest here

1.d4 b5

Floor 47.4% · 793K games

47.5%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.9%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+					—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (11,324 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (32,107 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (16,155 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (268 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (153 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (14,717 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (33,746 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (14,741 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (572 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (314 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (26,077 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (45,395 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (17,707 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,592 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (623 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (43,351 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (62,574 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (21,714 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (2,502 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (572 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (48,131 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (83,088 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (22,583 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (1,146 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (296 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (52,728 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (76,537 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (16,280 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (805 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (148 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (47,392 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (47,396 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (7,285 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (193 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (86 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (31,623 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (24,115 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (2,656 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (5,725 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (2,214 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.0% expected score (82 games)

2 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Polish Defense: Spassky Gambit Accepted23K games

Winning54.1%Floor 53.5%

Polish Defense793K games

Losing47.5%Floor 47.4%

Analyze Polish Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Polish Defense family scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 47.8% — from 817K Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 817K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Defense win rate?

Across the Polish Defense's 2 variations, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 817K rated games from Lichess.

How many Polish Defense variations are there?

2 Polish Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Polish Defense perform best?

The Polish Defense family performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.0% (156K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Polish Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Polish Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (407K games) against 45.1% in Rapid (119K games).

How sharp is the Polish Defense?

Polish Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Polish Defense a good opening family?

The Polish Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.8% and loses 50.5%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.