Polish Defense

2 variations · 817K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Polish Defense gives White a 52.4% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 4.5%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.5%Aggregated from 2 variations

0%52.4%100%

Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.5%

ContextOverall · n=817K

Outcome Distribution

50.5%3.7%45.8%

Win

Draw

Loss

1...b5

Polish Defense

Variations2

Games (Context)817K

Avg Length33 moves

Draw Rate3.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Polish Defense: Spassky Gambit AcceptedTop Pick

1.d4 b5 2.e4 Bb7 3.Bxb5

Min adv -9.1% · n=23K

46.0%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Polish Defense family has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.3% and 52.5%), aggregated from 2 variations and 817K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 49%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in Bullet (50%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+					—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (65 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (11,324 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (32,107 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (16,155 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (268 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (153 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (14,717 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (33,746 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (14,741 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (572 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (314 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (26,077 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (45,395 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (17,707 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (1,592 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (623 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (43,351 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (62,574 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (21,714 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (2,502 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (572 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (48,131 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (83,088 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (22,583 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (1,146 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (296 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (52,728 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (76,537 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (16,280 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (805 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (148 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (47,392 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (47,396 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (7,285 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (193 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (86 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (31,623 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (24,115 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,656 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (5,725 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (2,214 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.0% expected score (82 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (2)

Polish Defense793K games

Winning52.6%

Polish Defense: Spassky Gambit Accepted23K games

Losing46.0%

Analyze Polish Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Defense win rate?

The Polish Defense family has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, aggregated from 2 variations and 817K rated games from Lichess.

How many Polish Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 2 Polish Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Polish Defense perform best?

The Polish Defense family performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (60K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Polish Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.7%) outperforms Bullet (50.1%) by 5.6% across all Polish Defense variations.

How sharp is the Polish Defense?

Polish Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Polish Defense a good opening family?

The Polish Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 2 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.