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Fried Fox Defense

1 variations · 123K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
2...Kf7
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

46.4%

40%55%
Floor46.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.6%.

Measured over 123K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 123K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#54 of 62
Games in this context
123K
Best context
50.6% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
41.1% at 2500+ Blitz
Variations measured
1
Average game length
35 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Fried Fox DefenseBest here
1.e4 f6 2.d4 Kf7
Floor 46.1% · 123K games
46.4%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.1% at 0-999, 45.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (604 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (935 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (234 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (721 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (806 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,177 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (2,124 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (2,754 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (4,066 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (714 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (6,741 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,840 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (1,415 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (12,206 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (10,706 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (1,090 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (15,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (10,404 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (535 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (22,938 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (10,722 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (8,123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (1,035 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Fried Fox Defense123K games
46.4%Floor 46.1%
Analyze Fried Fox Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Fried Fox Defense family scores 46.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 46.6% — from 123K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
123K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fried Fox Defense win rate?

Across the Fried Fox Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 123K rated games from Lichess.

How many Fried Fox Defense variations are there?

1 Fried Fox Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Fried Fox Defense perform best?

The Fried Fox Defense family performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 47.6% (7.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Fried Fox Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Fried Fox Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.9% in Blitz (47K games) against 44.7% in Rapid (4.8K games).

How sharp is the Fried Fox Defense?

Fried Fox Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Fried Fox Defense a good opening family?

The Fried Fox Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 44.6% and loses 51.8%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.