391 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the English Opening: Porcupine Variation has a 60.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.4% and 64.5%), based on 391 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 62%
Best in Bullet (62%), worst in Rapid (55%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The English Opening: Porcupine Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 54.4%-62.5%) win rate for white, based on 391 rated games from Lichess.
The English Opening: Porcupine Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 61.0% win rate for white (191 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The English Opening: Porcupine Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: Porcupine Variation has a 61.0% (90% CI: 55.2%-66.7%) win rate for white, based on 191 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: Porcupine Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 124 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the English Opening: Porcupine Variation has a 57.8% (90% CI: 53.2%-62.3%) win rate for white (316 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
The English Opening: Porcupine Variation is statistically favors white with a 58.5% (90% CI: 54.4%-62.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.